Canada: Barley exports forecast down 40% from last month

Hot and dry weather in the provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan has sharply reduced prospects for barley. With smaller supplies, exports for 2021/22 (October-September) are forecast at 2.7 million tons, down 40 percent from last month, USDA’s August report says.

As an exporter, Canada has been a relatively small player in the global barley trade. However, the share of its production destined for export has trended upward in recent years, and about a third of the crop is slated for foreign markets in 2020/21.

China has been the top destination, followed by the United States and Japan. Limited exportable supplies will impact exports to China, given that China accounts for the lion’s share of Canada exports. For October 2020 through June 2021, Canada supplied about 30 percent of China barley imports.

For the domestic market in Canada, barley has been a major feed grain used for cattle in western provinces, where the cattle inventory is concentrated. Tight supplies of barley and other grains (i.e., oats, rye, and wheat) in the region are expected to trigger the need for alternative feedstuffs to mitigate impacts. Some domestic corn, grown predominantly in Ontario and Quebec, could flow west for feed purposes. Additional corn, however, is unlikely to lessen tightness of feedstuffs. Combined feed and residual use for grains in Canada is currently forecast to fall substantially year-over-year.

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